Markets
Drawdowns by portfolio mix
Every mix of stocks and bonds has a different worst-case. Below is the peak-to-trough decline history for your chosen blend, using calendar-year total returns for the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries from 1928 to 2025, rebalanced annually.
Portfolio mix60% stocks / 40% bonds
Worst drawdown
-40.1%
Worst calendar year
-27.3% (1931)
Annualized return
8.34%
Annual volatility
12.1%
Year by year returns
Positive years shown in green above the line, negative years in red below it.
1928Best: 32.9% · Worst: -27.3%2025
Worst declines
| Peak | Trough | Decline | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1928 | 1932 | -40.1% | 1935 |
| 1972 | 1974 | -20.8% | 1976 |
| 1936 | 1937 | -20.7% | 1943 |
| 2021 | 2022 | -18.0% | 2024 |
| 2007 | 2008 | -13.9% | 2010 |
| 2000 | 2002 | -11.7% | 2003 |
Odds the market is up
Short horizons are close to a coin flip. The longer you hold, the more the odds tilt in your favor. Horizons of a year or more reflect your selected 60/40 mix; day/week/month/quarter figures are S&P 500 price history.
1 day
53%
1 week
56%
1 month
62%
1 quarter
67%
1 year
79%
3 years
91%
5 years
96%
10 years
100%
20 years
100%
| Holding period | Odds positive | Best (ann.) | Worst (ann.) | Periods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 79% | 32.9% | -27.3% | 98 |
| 3 years | 91% | 23.0% | -15.2% | 96 |
| 5 years | 96% | 20.1% | -5.4% | 94 |
| 10 years | 100% | 16.0% | 1.8% | 89 |
| 20 years | 100% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 79 |
Compare every mix
| Stocks / Bonds | Annualized | Volatility | Worst drawdown | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 / 0 | 10.02% | 19.4% | -64.8% | -43.8% (1931) |
| 80 / 20 | 9.27% | 15.6% | -53.5% | -35.6% (1931) |
| 60 / 40 | 8.34% | 12.1% | -40.1% | -27.3% (1931) |
| 40 / 60 | 7.24% | 9.2% | -25.6% | -19.1% (1931) |
| 20 / 80 | 5.97% | 7.5% | -17.9% | -17.9% (2022) |
| 0 / 100 | 4.53% | 7.9% | -21.5% | -17.8% (2022) |
Drawdowns are measured on calendar year-end values, so intra-year declines were deeper than shown. Past performance does not predict future results.